Climate change skeptics: put your money where your mouth is

Written by pete


We tend to post sites and articles we’ve read and found interesting on our twitter feed (it also has all of our blog posts if you can’t wait for the newsletter). But every now and again one crops up this is worthy of a full link from the blog.

Fed up with comments such as “it’s so cold this spring how can you possibly believe in global *warming*!?” the stats and politics blogger Nate Silver has offered any public figure or reasonably popular blogger $25 if average daily temperatures really are lower over the period of a month. There’s a catch of course — you owe him $25 for every day they’re higher.

I wonder if anybody will take him up on it…

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  1. michael

    …my quick comment is where and when? Global warming will, or is currently, displacing rainfall and high temps. Just because we’ve seen record rain and cold temps in the northeast doesn’t mean the greater globe isn’t warming or drying…isn’t that why we call it global warming?

  2. Don

    I’m not sure Nate did his homework… a month is a very short timeframe, and reading his full challenge, it’s only for a single (agreed upon) point, not even regional or global.
    I think most readers of this blog realize that GW is “global” in the sense of “averaged over the globe over time”, and not “every spot on the global will only increase in temperature from here on out”, which is what he seems to be betting on.
    It seems to me the more cynical betters could probably find areas where global temperatures are expected to drop due to the changing climate, and take up his bet on those. In doing so, perhaps they’d be forced to admit the climate is changing, but that’s probably wishful thinking.

  3. Anonymous

    It is very dangerous to think about this problem in the short term. There are some very serious and plausible arguments that medium-term natural cycles could largely offset or mitigate anthropogenic warming for another ten years or more, as they have done the last ten. Of course, when the natural trends swing the other way and compound with the anthropogenic warming, things will get bad really quickly.
    Climate change is not months or even years. It is decades.

  4. parrish

    …or to simplify even more, Nate, what you are talking about is weather, not climate change/global warming. Big difference.

  5. Margie C

    Living in the northeast, it would be easy to think we are seeing global cooling, but then I just saw a drought map of the US – Texas is hotter than blazes and 77 counties are in an extreme, severe drought. Lakes have dried up. Big ones. The better phrase is climate change for sure.
    I know some smug, conservative types who pooh pooh everything, and they just make me sick. They don’t look at facts, but think their opinions are golden. They just echo each other’s uninformed views.

  6. michael

    Uninformed types may pooh pooh global warming but they cannot dismiss the evidence…looking the other way isn’t helpful either.