Headlines abounded Tuesday with the call that the normally conservative International Energy Agency had shifted its tone to cautionary about the supply of oil, the impact of CO2 pollution, and the likelihood that high oil prices are here to stay (see articles from WSJ, CNN etc). Full Report is available here for purchase, or you can read the exec sum for free here)
At TerraPass, we hear that many customers buy their TerraPass to support clean domestic energy; we thought we would highlight some of the key points of the IEA report (and save you 600 pages of bedtime reading):
- World energy demand is expected to rise 50% by 2030. Sixty percent of that new energy demand will be met by oil and gas.
- However, if current energy saving policies like Kyoto and the G8 committment are implemented, energy demand will rise by “only” 37%
- Oil Production infrastructure investment in the Middle East remains both sorely needed and highly uncertain. If investment does not occur, oil prices could rise another 30% over the base scenario. In other words, producers will hoard supply of a scarce resource for higher prices (Gasp!)
The media take on this report was mainly that the stodgy energy agency is finally changing its tune on peak oil and environmental issues. The obligatory pull-quote from the WSJ:
‘This is not a sustainable energy future,’ said IEA’s chief economist’
To be honest, this strikes me kind of like a recent college graduate sitting in an 8am client meeting and realizing that perhaps drinking five nights a week is not so sustainable.
However, the fact that this “realization” is coming from the IEA is a good thing, and may show that the old oil world is finally waking up to problems associated with oil consumption, and willing to say something publicly about it.